A Yankees-Reds Trade to Benefit both Teams

Reds INF Eugenio Suarez
Photo Courtesy of Aaron Gash (Associated Press)

If you came here hoping to read about how the Yankees could acquire Luis Castillo from the Reds, I’m sorry to disappoint you. While Castillo may well don the pinstripes, I do not see it as very likely (although I would love to be wrong). This article is about swapping expensive spare parts to a place they are more likely to shine. The deal is very simple:

Yankees Receive: Eugenio Suarez

Reds Receive: Aaron Hicks and one or two PTBNLs

If this deal had been proposed after the 2019 season, you’d have all called me nuts. And if you don’t follow the Reds all that much, you may still call me nuts. But Suarez has been on a downhill slide since 2019. His batting average has dropped from .271 to teeter around the Mendoza Line the past two seasons (.202 and .198). As you can probably imagine, his on-base percentage has followed suit (.312 and .286). Yet, Suarez hit 31 home runs this year, and is not far removed from a 49-homer campaign. At just 30 years of age, Suarez should still be in his prime. So, why isn’t he performing like it? Why has his wRC+ dropped from 130 to 101 down to a well-below average 85?

A dive into Suarez’s hard-hit metrics raises concerns, but they are not necessarily damning:

According to FanGraphs, his hard-hit rate fell, but his soft contact rate remained very similar. Statcast, however, says he actually is barreling balls at a greater rate than his 49-homer season in 2019. I included 2018 (a year in which Suarez slashed .283/.366/.526 and slugged 34 homers) to account for the juiced ball of 2019. So, what’s the deal? Did Suarez become pull happy? You could say that, but he trended back towards his 2018-19 levels in 2021:

Looking at those numbers, you’d probably expect 2018 and 2021 to be very similar years, but they are very different. He has struck out more since the start of 2019 (more on that later), but he also hits the ball in the year more. So, what gives with Suarez and his steep drop off?

Great American Ballpark is known for being a hitter’s park, but it is 328 to left and 325 to right, respectively 10 and 11 feet longer than the outfield corners at Yankee Stadium. Plus, he has to play a lot of interdivision games at more pitcher friendly or neutral ballparks such as Wrigley Field (depending on the wind), Busch Stadium, PNC Park, and American Family Field. Imagine three fourths of those games being played at Fenway Park, Camden Yards, and Rogers Centre. Another potential problem Suarez faced was a lack of protection from a lineup that lacked much punch outside of Nick Castellanos and a recently resurgent Joey Votto. Imagine him hitting 6th or 7tb in a Yankees lineup that also includes a (hopefully) healthy DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo.

Since we have reached the Joey Gallo portion of the article, Suarez would do nothing to solve the strikeout problems that so often plague this team, but if he returns to 2018-19 form, Suarez is not the same hitter as Joey Gallo. Gallo has never hit higher than .253 and that came in only 297 plate appearances. His next best batting average is .209. Suarez, meanwhile, remains a career .252 hitter despite his meager last two seasons.

Suarez also brings with him an element of versatility as he has extensive experience at both third base and shortstop. While the Yankees would probably prefer he never lines up at short, he proved capable of handling it in a pinch. As for his defense at third, Suarez posted -3 DRS and a 0.7 UZR/150 in 886 innings at the hot corner, compared to Gio Urshela’s -4 DRS and 1.2 UZR/150 in 754.2 innings in 2021. As much of a warrior as Gio has shown he can be, his injury issues are a concern, having never played more than 132 games in a season. Suarez has played in at least 143 in every season since 2016. If the Yankees can help Suarez recapture his 2018-19 form, he is also an undisputed upgrade with the bat. Gio could stick around and serve a utility role if Suarez outperforms him, or Suarez can serve the utility role if Gio earns it, thus giving the Yankees a threat off the bench they have sorely lacked for some time.

Now, perhaps I you convinced that Suarez is worth a look for the Yankees. However, you are probably wondering why the Reds would take the deadweight that is the Aaron Hicks contract for him. Aaron Hicks is owed just over $42 million over the next four years, including a buyout on a club option for 2026. The Reds owe Suarez just over $35 million over the next three years, including a buyout on a club option for 2025. The Reds would essentially buy a mid-level prospect or two for $7 million, but this deal does more for them than that. As it stands, the Reds infield appears set. Mike Moustakas should man the hot corner with Kyle Farmer flanking him at short, rookie sensation Jonathan India at second, and franchise legend Joey Votto manning the cold corner, leaving no place for Suarez and his $11+ million in 2022. The Reds outfield has far more question marks than answers. Jesse Winker has an outfield corner on lock, but is surrounded by an underwhelming group of 40-man roster options for the other two spots. Shogo Akiyama has been a bust. TJ Friedl has 31 plate appearances to his name. Allen Cerda has none. Aristedes Aquino’s production has cratered since his otherworldly start to his big-league career. Nick Senzel has failed to come close to living up to his prospect pedigree and could be entering a make-or-break year. Lastly, Tyler Naquin had a solid 2021 season, but is hardly the epitome of health having never played in more than 127 games. His stat line was also buoyed by a torrid August.

Aaron Hicks is not without his own question marks. In fact, he comes

with a suitcase full of them. However, if the Reds can spend roughly equal money, get a prospect or two towards their rebuild, alleviate a logjam, and potentially fill a need, it might just be worth the price of admission to make this trade with the New York Yankees.