Joey Gallo: Do Old School and New School Thought Actually Agree on this Polarizing Player?

Photo by Nick Wass of The Associated Press

Joey Gallo is a polarizing figure in these parts. To some, his three seasons of 38 or more home runs, his penchant for walks, and his two Gold Gloves paint the picture of an abundantly useful player, perhaps bordering on elite. To others, his average that hovers around the Mendoza Line coupled with his penchant for strikeouts make him a player who the Yankees should rid themselves of at all costs. New school analytics versus old school philosophy butt heads when it comes to the Yankees starting left fielder. What I can’t figure out is why the analytically inclined cling to him so much. Hear me out.

Gallo’s two 40 homer seasons came in 2017 and 2018. That’s ancient history in baseball terms. His 2019 season came with prodigious power, and Gallo appeared to be on track for a career year. Unfortunately, he was limited to 22 homers in 70 games. He had a slash line of .253/.389/.598 that year, good for a wRC+ of 144. That slash line was carried by an unsustainable .368 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which is well north of his career .263 BABIP. His walk rate was 17.5% which at the time was the highest of his career (18.0% in 2021). His strikeout rate was 38.4% that year which is the highest of his career if we ignore the 53 games he played as a rookie between 2015 and 2016.

On the surface, in light of his injury shortened 2019 and his status as an elite hitter from 2017-2019, 2020 appeared to be an outlier for Gallo. In a COVID shortened season, Gallo appeared in 57 games, slashing .181/.301/.378 (.679 OPS, 87 wRC+). He launched ten home runs in this time, a significant power drop off from his 22 homers in 70 games the season prior. Gallo also added his first Gold Glove. In 2021, Gallo looked to be back on track. In 95 games for the Texas Rangers, Gallo hit 25 home runs to go along with a slash line of .223/.379/.490. He was then traded to the Yankees with Joely Rodriguez and a year and a half of team control for the hulking outfielder. Gallo has since played 95 games for the Yankees, and the results have been far from that output. As a Yankee, Gallo is slashing .162/.294/.370 (.664 OPS), good for an OPS+ of 87 (or 13% below league average). Comparatively, Gallo posted a 138 OPS+ for Texas in 2021. He’s hit 18 home runs in his time in the Bronx, but they clearly aren’t propping up his offensive output to even league average. His wRC+ for 2022 sits at 86, 14% below league average. His strikeout rate (36.9% before last night’s 3 K performance) is the second highest of his career during a full season, and his walk rate (13.9%) is his third lowest. For the season, Gallo has a -0.2 fWAR.

“But Gallo has hit into a lot of bad luck this season.” It is fair to say this to a point. However, Gallo’s .236 BABIP is not that incredibly far off from his .246 BABIP last year, or his .249 BABIP in 2018 when he cemented himself as an offensive force. Per Statcast, his 20% barrel rate is right in line withi his 20.2% career barrel rate and his 48.3% hard hit rate is in line with 48.8% for his career. If we look at FanGraphs batted ball data, Gallo is hitting the ball on the ground 36.7% of the time, well above his career 29.9%. His line drive rate is up to 23.3% (up from a career 19.8%) but his fly ball rate (you know those things that turn into the home runs he’s supposed to hit) is at 40%, by far the lowest of his career and well below his average of 50.2%. His HR/FB ratio is at 20.8% on the season compared to 27.8% for his career. The most disturbing trend of all is that Gallo’s pull% this season is 61.7%(!) compared to 48.9% for his career. When you are already one of the most shifted against players in baseball, it’s always a good idea to pull the ball even more, right? Right?

Gallo’s most positive contribution to the team has been through his baserunning and his defense. He put the finishing touches to his 2021 Gold Glove season while donning the pinstripes. This year, Gallo has only gotten on base at a .287 clip. More disturbing than his low OBP is his poor defensive work in the field. I don’t care what metric you want to use: UZR/150, Outs Above Average, Runs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, or the good ol’ eye test. Using the eye test, Gallo has taken horrible routes to balls all season, resulting in extra bases for batters. The metrics back up that evaluation too:

UZR/150 OAA RAA DRS
2020            16.9          3       3        13
2021              0.4           6       5        15
2022            -27.8         -3     -3        -1

To say that Gallo’s defense has cratered this year would be an understatement. At 28 years old, I doubt he’s lost a step. The more likely cause in my opinion is that Gallo simply cannot handle the pressures and expectations that come with playing in New York for the Yankees. Can he still be a useful, albeit flawed, player with another team? Probably. I admittedly never wanted to trade for Gallo because I thought he was a bad fit on this team, but I never saw it coming to this. I never imagined he’d be a worse hitter in his first 95 games in the Bronx by 52% than his last 95 games in Texas. I never imagined his Gold Glove defense would disappear to the point of being a liability on the outfield grass. And I never imagined his home runs and walks would become a welcomed surprise rather than his saving grace. To all those who still defend Joey Gallo, I must now ask why? The only catch is that in your next argument defending him, you can’t use analytics: not because I don’t like them, but because not a single metric portrays a good player anymore.