MLB rumors: Bad defense? Overrated bat? Busting Bryce Harper myths as Phillies talk heats up

The Phillies could be on the verge of giving Bryce Harper $300M. Here’s why Harper is worth it.

As rumors continue to connect the Phillies to a record contract with outfielder Bryce Harper, it’s natural to have some trepidation about any long-term deal. Ten (or more) year commitments on guaranteed deals are inherently risky.

But Harper is a rare player with rare accolades at a young age. Betting on a 26-year-old Harper for a decade is one of the best bets any baseball franchise can make. That includes actual concerns and over-the-top myths.

Here’s a few myths that need to be busted, and concerns alleviated before an announcement goes down.

‘Ten-year deals *never* work!’

Ten-year deals to player at-or-around 30 years old almost never work. The precedent for giving young superstars long-term pacts is far different.

In early 2001, the Yankees front office gave Derek Jeter the first 10-year contract in MLB history. The deal, spawning Jeter’s age 27-36 seasons, was a boon: 1,918 hits, .310 batting average.

Three years later, the Yankees picked up most of what was left on Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $252M deal from the Texas Rangers. Rodriguez went on to win two MVPs with New York before opting out after the 2007 season. Here are Rodriguez’s totals over the length of his original mega deal (signed after his age-24 season): 424 HR, 150 OPS+, three-time MVP.

‘Harper will be awful by the end of this deal!’

Let’s say Harper gets a 10-year pact. The final five years of that type of deal would cover his age 31-35 seasons. Here’s a look at those same seasons for some of the poster boys for “bad contracts” in recent years:

Albert Pujols age 31-35: 130 OPS+

Robinson Cano age 31-35: 129 OPS+

Jayson Werth age 31-35: 130 OPS+

Will Harper slip in the backend of a deal? Undoubtedly. As players move from their 20s to their 30s, decline hits. But the idea that this player–or any great offensive player–falls off a cliff from age 31-35 is simply wrong. There’s a good chance Harper is great for the next five years, then very good for five more.

‘Harper’s defense is terrible in the outfield!’

Prior to the 2018 season, Harper had been worth 0.2 defensive WAR over the first six years of his career. Basically, he was a neutral defender. The idea that defense would be held against him a year later would have been a hard concept to grasp.

Then 2018 happened. Coming off the 2017 knee injury, Harper had a poor defensive season. That was exacerbated by the Nationals asking the former catcher to man center field in 63 games–a ridiculous ask for an average corner outfielder.

Harper isn’t a Gold Glove candidate in right field. But the idea that his defense is an albatross just isn’t backed up by the facts of his career.

‘Harper’s always hurt!’

There’s no way around this concern, but the root of the problem does feel less concerning than the results. Harper has battled issues with hip, neck, knee and thumbs ailments. But at least two of the issues that cost Harper time (running into an outfield wall and slipping on a wet base) feel fluky.

We’re not talking about a player that’s had two knee operations (like, say, the more “durable” Manny Machado) or someone that’s missed half-or-more of a season. Harper has battled ailments, but he’s far from always hurt and is coming off a season of 159 games played.

‘Harper’s not that great!’

Harper has 184 career HR and .900 OPS through his age-25 season. Only 10 players have ever done that. The other nine: Alex Rodriguez, Eddie Matthews, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Ken Griffey Jr. Everyone else on that list is either in the Hall of Fame, belongs in (Rodriguez) or will eventually be a first-ballot inductee (Trout and Pujols).

We’re talking about one of the great young sluggers ever, and one worth the deal he’s likely about to get.

Joe Giglio may be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports. Find NJ.com on Facebook.