MLB rumors: How Padres' Manny Machado could be Yankees' next Alex Rodriguez or Giancarlo Stanton

by Felix Pantaleón

The New York Yankees balked at signing free-agent third baseman Manny Machado, who agreed to a 10-year, $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres. By 2022, the outlook could shift through a blockbuster trade.

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“Batting third for the Yankees, third baseman Manny Machado!”

That line won’t be uttered in 2019. It likely won’t be uttered in 2020 or 2021 either. If Machado’s tenure with the San Diego Padres is as fruitful as both sides likely hope after a record contract, it likely won’t happen at all.

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But here’s why Machado eventually playing for the team so many assumed he’d land with still could happen down the line.

Yes, I’m talking about the idea of Machado becoming the Yankees’ next Alex Rodriguez or Giancarlo Stanton–superstars acquired through a trade in the midst of a long-term contract.

San Diego can’t afford this and compete

Much like the Texas Rangers in the early-2000s or Miami Marlins last year, the Padres will inevitably realize the inevitable: Paying two players (Eric Hosmer and Machado) a combined $51M per year through 2023 won’t work for a team that’s carried a payroll over $100M just once in its history.

The only way this works? Almost everyone of the Padres slew of top prospects has to hit to give the team a stable of cheap labor around the two highly-paid veterans. The odds of that happening are slim.

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Eventually, Machado will want to win

San Diego will gradually improve, but doesn’t have the resources to pay other veterans (namely established arms in the rotation and bullpen) what it will take to build a consistent winner around Machado’s salary. Much like Rodriguez in Texas, the combination of October-less baseball and the player’s desire to compete will eventually lead to San Diego shopping Machado.

Yankees swoop in at a discount

Rodriguez had seven years and $179M left on his deal when the Yankees and Rangers started talking about a blockbuster trade in 2004. By the time the deal was complete, Texas picked up $67M of the tab. The Yankees acquired the best player the American League on a seven-year, $112M deal. Two MVPs, one World Series title and seven excellent seasons later, it was a bargain.

Last year, the Marlins kicked in $30M of the $295 owed to Stanton. The Yankees essentially traded for 10 years and $265M of Stanton’s deal–a far cry from the $325 he originally signed for.

Throughout the Machado process, the Yankees seemingly balked at a long-term deal and wanted to go nowhere near the $300M price tag. But by the end of the 2021 season, it’s not crazy to imagine the Yankees trading for the final seven years and $180M (assuming the Padres pick up $30-or-so-million) of Machado’s deal.