MLB trade rumors: Why the Phillies shouldn’t be ‘all in’ for Orioles’ Manny Machado

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado to the Phillies? Here’s why it shouldn’t be a priority in Philadelphia right now, with the July 31, 2018 (7/31/18) non-waiver trade deadline approaching.

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It’s time to change expectations around the Phillies. But that doesn’t mean the front office should lose sight of the big picture.

As the Phillies depart Baltimore after a one-game make-up tilt, Manny Machado rumors continue to swirl around an upstart, first-place team. Over the next two and a half weeks (or at least until Machado is dealt), the Phillies will be connected to a player they have been linked to for years.

Would adding Machado to a lineup in desperate need of another bat push the Phillies over the top in the NL East? Probably. Would it make a run at the pennant this year possible? Without a doubt.

But would it truly do anything to spur long-term winning and push the Phillies’ new window to win open further? Likely not. In fact, acquiring Machado could make runs at the World Series in 2019 and beyond more difficult.

Despite some doubt about the current Phillies hitting enough or pitching well enough in the bullpen to be a true contender now, there’s no questioning the future of this franchise. The Phillies are set up to be good for a long time.

NL All-Star and Cy Young contender Aaron Nola is 24. Rhys Hoskins is 25. Scott Kingery is 24. Odubel Herrera is 26. Zach Elfin is 24. Seranthony Dominguez is 23. Not one of those players can hit free agency until after 2021–at the earliest. With exactly zero bad contracts on the ledger, the Phillies will head into this coming winter’s free-agent class with less than $70M on the books for the 2019 season.

Wanting to strike while the iron is hot is understandable, but the iron should be hot for years with this franchise.

Instead of trading two top five prospects and/or a major league starter from this current team for Machado, waiting (and attempting to outbid everyone else) until the offseason is the smart way to go.

While the two or three-player package the Phillies could offer Baltimore likely won’t cripple the farm system, every move made now using assets is one less that can be made in the future. If, say, the 2019 team needs a high-end starter or closer, the farm system will be less ready to make that deal if top prospects are lost now for a rental. The same goes for if (or when) the Angels face a crossroads with Mike Trout before his free agency in 2020.

Instead of trying to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers or Brewers for Machado now, the Phillies should look for salary dumps (Cole Hamels? Zach Britton? Adrian Beltre?), add one more depth piece to the lineup and a reliable lefty reliever in the bullpen.

If the idea is just to try to make a run this year, Machado (in theory) is the play. But if the idea is to win big for years, Machado arriving could actually hurt in the long run.

Lastest on Machado

Plus, there’s no guarantee Machado (or any other big-ticket star dealt) this month outperforms a lesser name over a two-month period. If you think that’s crazy, consider these two snapshots of player performance over the last month.

Player A: .327/.395/.542, 5 HR

Player B: .333/.395/.564, 4 HR

Player A is Machado. Player B is Maikel Franco, the bat Machado would most likely replace in Philadelphia’s everyday lineup. Clearly, Machado is the superior player. But over any month-or-two span baseball doesn’t always bear that out. Trading a ton for two months of any player is a risk, especially when wiser options are out there.

Machado to the Phillies is a fun idea and would be a bold move for a franchise looking to reenter the spotlight. That doesn’t mean it’s the right one.

Joe Giglio may be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports. Find NJ.com on Facebook.