Will Yankees reach World Series in 2019? Ranking the future Fall Classic contenders

by Felix Pantaleón

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox meet on Tuesday, October 23, 2018 (10/23/18) at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. for Game 1 of the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series and the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series to reach the Fall Classic for the fourth time in 15 years.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox meet Tuesday at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. for Game 1 of the 2018 World Series.

The Red Sox had to go through the Yankees in the playoffs to reach the Fall Classic.

Their defeat in the American League Division Series means the Yankees will enter the 2019 season a full decade removed from their last World Series title.

But that drought could be ending soon, according to Fangraphs.

The web site is predicting which clubs are most likely to win a World Series title in the next five years (2019-23).

Here is how the site approached its prediction:

Here are the criteria I’ve considered to produce these rankings: short-term MLB talent, long-term MLB talent/upper-minors prospects, lower-minors prospects/trade capital, payroll ceiling, MLB coaching/front office, and amateur signings (draft and international). You could quibble and combine or separate a few of those groupings, or argue some of these can’t be quantified properly. You may be right, but we’ll keep tweaking things until they are.

10 most disappointing Yankees

The Dodgers and Astros top the list. The Yankees come in at No. 3:

Eric and I often talk about the Yankees in glowing terms when it comes to their process and outcomes, particularly in the amateur markets. They are generally regarded to be top-five (if not better) in terms of developing their minor leaguers and signing/drafting players in the draft and international markets. This allows them to continue to turn small investments into tradable assets — and GM Brian Cashman has been aggressive in trading multiple middle- to lower-tier prospects for short-term help, trusting that this machine will backfill the openings.

There are some questions surrounding the big-league team, however. There isn’t a clear long-term answer at first base; it isn’t obvious that Gary Sanchez will be a catcher for as long as some Yankee fans originally hoped; they’re now short an infielder for at least the first half of 2019 after Didi Gregorius‘s elbow surgery; Miguel Andujar‘s defense was historically bad this year; and the rotation needs to be bolstered. The farm system isn’t positioned to address those holes, but the Yankees have a good recent track record of solving such problems and also won’t have the constraints of the luxury tax about which to worry this offseason.

The club has a number of pending free agents, but not many current impact-type guys, with David Robertson representing possibly the best. Others include Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen. Much of the departures come from the bullpen, the strength of the team.

The Astros and Red Sox will remain in direct competition with the Yankees for at least the next few years, while Cleveland and Tampa Bay aren’t going away, either. They also don’t have George Steinbrenner in charge of the checkbook, so the spending likely won’t go out of control anytime soon, but the Yankees are still set up for a good run over the next five years due to a core with tons of controllable years.

Here is Fangraphs‘ list of World Series contenders for 2019-2023: